However, the recent lower growth of economy seems to be changing the situation. A decreasing of the power supply shortage ratio is likely to eliminate even minor day-to-day power outages.
The electricity supply capacity in India has not caught up with the growing demand as with other developing nations. Its additional supply capacity only achieved about half of the target set by every five-year economic plan since 1990s. Thus electricity supply capacity was shortage against the peak demand by 12-17% through 2000s.
The shortage ratio has been declining after mid-2010. The decrease is accelerated in this year and the latest number in August was only 2.7%.
Indian economic growth rate was near 10% during the latter half of 2000s except for the Lehman Shock period. But it has been below 5% in the recent three consecutive quarters. Year-on-year growth of the Index of Industrial Production in the country has been almost stopped since Q4 of 2011. Slower industrial activities, of course causes the sluggish energy demand.
In this year, monthly electricity supply in India recorded twice a decrease on year. It did not occur even after the Lehman Shock.
On the other hand, the supply capacity expansion plan that had not been achieved enough previously is also changing during the 12th five-year plan started in April 2012. India installed 22 million kilowatt of new electricity generation capacities in the first year of the current five-year plan. The total capacity of 76 million kw is scheduled to be added during this plan, therefore, the plan seems to be running at a faster speed considerably at moment.
Even if the growth pace of the power generation capacity is slowing down in the near future, further slower growth of electricity demand might prevent the severe blackout.
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