Overflow from US is changing global oil balance

Domestic crude oil production in the United States was 7.83 million barrels per day, while crude oil imports was 7.58 million bpd, according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration. Domestic output exceeded imports for the second time in this year after recording for the first time in May since early 1997.

Although crude oil imports exceeded domestic production significantly throughout 2000s, increasing unconventional oil production like shale oil has made narrowing the gap after mid-2011.
Monthly average production has not exceeded imports yet, but it also could be seen in the near future.

Since supply from Canada, that increases unconventional oil production as well, is steady, flows of crude oil from Latin America or Africa into U.S. are decreasing notably.

Crude oil supply in West African Nigeria except for exports to the U.S. has soared by 1 million bpd over  the past several years.

Average domestic crude oil output in the U.S. was slightly above 5 million bpd in mid-2000s, however, it has risen to near 8 million bpd recently and is expected to reach 10 million bpd in a couple of years. On the other hand, petroleum demand in the north America has been capped. Therefore, imports of crude oil are more decreasing than change of production. Suppliers who had relied on the U.S. have to find alternative buyers.

Shrinking oil supply from Iran due to the international sanction has not affected significantly on the global oil market. Recent supply disruption in Libya has not given sufficient impact on the market like civil war in 2011. The reason of these situations seems to be the overflow from suppliers that lost U.S. market.

Since this tendency is seen to be accelerated in the future, temporary oil supply disruptions are unlikely to affect on the real market as ever.

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