Oil demand forecast for China is declining

China has been the world's largest fossil fuel importer, since the Unites States is reducing energy imports following the shale revolution. China is recognized as the biggest engine of the growth in global petroleum consumption over the past several years. However, long term outlooks against the nation's oil demand are downgrading. It might suggest a change of the situation.

The latest outlooks of the global petroleum demand until 2025 was downgraded from the previous forecast in the World Oil Outlooks issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Meanwhile, forecasts against 2030 and later were upgraded.
Basically, oil demand in advanced nations were downward revised throughout the entire period, while demand in developing countries were upward revised. But Chinese demand was downgraded broadly unlike with other developing nations.

On the other hand, forecasts against growth of Chinese petroleum demand during the two decades until 2035 was wider than the previous year's prediction. It shows that the downward revision against the relatively clear forecasts of near future was deeper than the ambiguous prediction of far future.

In the long term, a core of the growth of oil demand is likely to shift from China to India and Southeast Asia etc.

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