6.16.2014

Mysterious large crude oil imports by China

China has procured large amount of crude oil since late last year. Accumulated supplies exceeding processed crude oil during the past several months seem more than the country's strategic reserve capacity. Even if Chinese statistics data are not credible, many institutes use these figures for calculating their world petroleum demand forecast. The suspicious crude oil procurements by China may lead amendment of future petroleum demand.

Total crude oil supply in China rose 5.3% on year in May to 43.84 million tonnes or 10.36 million barrels per day, while growth of crude oil processing in the same month stayed at 3.5% on year to 40.33 million tonnes or 9.53 bpd, according to the government data.

Crude oil supply in May exceeded processing volume by 3.51 million tonnes. Accumulated oversupply in the first five months in 2014 is nearly 14 million tonnes. The figures include commercial stockpile.
China's commercial crude oil stockpile level as of end-April was estimated about only 1.7 million tonnes higher than that at the end of 2013, according to data issued by Xinhua News. Therefore, crude oil oversupply during Jan-May excluding the growth of commercial stockpile seems still being more than 10 million tonnes, or 73 million barrels.


However, there is a question. Does China have enough storage capacity for the large strategic petroleum reserve? PetroChina estimated that national stockpile capacity as of end 2103 was 140 million barrels, while International Energy Agency saw it could be about 160 million barrels.

First phase of Crude oil strategic storage facilities in China were built by the end 2009. The total 103 million barrels facilities were filled in 2010. Then 169 million barrels of second phase facilities are planned to complete by 2015. The construction has delayed.
Part of the second phase facilities were completed in 2011 and they were filled with nearly 80 million barrels of crude oil in the first half of 2012.

Fresh news on strategic reserve facilities have not been reported after that. But China started to procure large crude oil since late last year. Total oversupply excluding movements of commercial stockpile during November 2013 and May 2014 reached 120 million barrels. Such volume is not able to store even if the second phase of national stockpile facilities are completed.


Where are the massive crude oil stockpiles stored? Is China really importing such large crude oil shown in its Customs data?

1 comment:

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